More and more wind and sun in the future of renewable energy

by Eladio Pascual – Director of Operations Audax Renovables

“A quarter of the energy used is green”, “Renewables are booming: towards overcoming coal” or “Within two decades, most of the energy will be sun and wind” and we could continue. This, in fact, is the tenor of the headlines with which the mass media describe the significant growth of renewable energy sources in the global energy mix.

The news of the excellent results of wind power in the USA came just a few days ago: + 8% compared to 2017 and almost 97 GW of installed power. According to the annual report of the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), wind would now be able to provide electricity to approximately 30 million American families. A new way of considering energy and its production that sees the state of Texas at the forefront, with 25 GW of power installed on its territory. [+info]

But where are we with the development of renewables? How far is the goal of a global energy transition?

Let's start with three considerations.

1. First of all, it is useful to remember that fossil fuels - oil first and foremost - will continue to be the protagonists of the energy scene in the coming decades. According to the scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [+info] coal, for example, will lose its second position in the world energy mix only in 2040, overtaken by natural gas. It is unthinkable today that both the main world economies - especially those of fast-growing nations such as China and India - and those of developing countries could give it up. The demand for hydrocarbons will also continue to rise and will reach its peak around 2030. Likewise, their role in energy production will remain strong, with forecasts of a demand that will fluctuate between 80 and 130 million barrels of oil per day, compared to approximately 95 million barrels currently (BP 2019 Report data +info).
2. Second element: energy consumers have changed or will change. In 2000, Europe and North America accounted for more than 40% of global energy demand, and the developing economies of Asia accounted for about 20%. In just over 20 years the situation will be reversed; already today half of the global growth in gas demand, 60% of wind and solar demand, over 80% of oil demand and over 100% of the increase in coal and nuclear consumption can be attributed to Asian nations.
3. Third: electricity has taken on an increasingly central role, especially in modern economies, becoming the second most used source globally after crude oil. Today it represents 19% of global consumption, but the prospects speak of a future in which we will reach 65%. And the progressive and – in recent years – sustained growth of RES can be included in this framework.

However, Texas mentioned at the beginning is a further sign that the "situation is changing". Even if only from a symbolic point of view, we are faced with a reversal of the classic image of that American State which has always been the bearer of a "universal epic" of oil so strong that it has forcefully entered popular culture and celebrated by cinema, literature and mass media.

So where are we at? With an increase of 7.9%, today the share of generation from renewable sources is approximately 25%, while projections for 2040 speak of a percentage of no less than 40%.

For IRENA, i.e. the international renewables agency [+info], the sum of the capacity of all the plants in the world is 2,351 GW. Hydroelectric still dominates with almost 50% (1,172 GW); however, it is likely that this will not always be the case, considering the pace at which other technologies are growing.

Graph 1. Generation according to source

(source IRENA, March 2019)

In the meantime, solar energy has reached 564 GW, wind energy has reached 486 GW, while so-called bioenergy has exceeded 13 GW for geothermal energy and 500 MW for tidal, wave and ocean energy respectively.

Graph 2. Capacity growth

(source IRENA, March 2019)

Observing the evolution of renewables, the progress made over almost twenty years is impressive; if in 2001 there were around 20 GW installed, in 2018 this figure reached over 160. It should also be remembered that 63% of the power added in the past year can be attributed precisely to RES; a percentage that rises up to 95% if we look at the European Union alone (Irex data).

Intanto il 61% della nuova capacità è arrivata dall’Asia, ovvero un TW di capacità rinnovabile, 44% del totale mondiale. L’Asia e l’Oceania sono state anche le regioni con la crescita più rapida, rispettivamente dell’11,4% e del 17,7%. L’Europa ha fatto segnare un +24 GW, con un aumento del 4,6%, mentre il Nord America un +19 GW, che corrispondono a +5,4%. L’Africa si è attestata a un +3,6 GW (+8,4%).

Graph 3. New power generated from renewables

(source IRENA, March 2019)

Graph 4. Capacity generated by renewables according to geographical areas

(source IRENA, March 2019)

But which technology achieved the best performance?

Fotovoltaico ed eolico sono quelle che hanno contribuito maggiormente con l’84% della capacità installata. Se il solare fotovoltaico è cresciuto del 24% rispetto al 2017, raggiungendo quasi i 94 GW installati, l’eolico rimane la principale fonte rinnovabile, facendo registrare un +10% con 49 GW. Più contenuta la crescita dell’idroelettrico (+2% pari a 21 GW), mentre l’elettricità rinnovabile generata da altre tecnologie è cresciuta del 6%.

Naturalmente l’idroelettrico rimane la tecnologia più applicata: essa rappresenta poco meno del 50% di tutta la fornitura di energia elettrica da fonti green. Un primato che andrà sempre riducendosi, considerando la progressiva crescita delle altre tecnologie.

In fact, returning to the energy of the sun and wind, the American company Fitch Solutions [+info] predicts that the capacity of these non-hydro renewables is expected to double between 2018 and 2028, to reach 2.4 TW.

In this growth the sun will prevail over the wind. This technology will be favored by the greater speed and lower construction costs that a photovoltaic system has compared to a wind power plant (not to mention a hydroelectric power plant). Again according to what is predicted by the study, 675 GW of photovoltaic systems should be installed within 4 years compared to the 482 GW expected for the wind sector. In 10 years, solar photovoltaic should cover 48% of total non-hydroelectric renewables compared to 44% of wind power.

Even from a financial point of view, solar photovoltaic seems to have attracted many more investments than other renewable sources: to be precise (2017 data) it is 160.8 out of 279.8 billion dollars, i.e. +18% compared to any other technology and , as a percentage of 57% of the total for all renewables (excluding mega-hydroelectric). A figure that exceeded the 103 billion dollars invested globally in coal and gas power plants (data from the Report "Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018”, commissioned to the Frankfurt School – Unep Collaborating Center by UN Environment e Bloomberg New Energy Finance +info)

The one that invested the most was China, eager to loosen its dependence on fossil fuels - coal primarily – favoring energy sources that are environmentally sustainable and strategically useful; in 2018, Beijing added 44 GW of capacity. As for the United States and India, 2018 levels remained stable compared to 2017, while in Europe capacity increased, as had not happened since 2015.