AUTO ELETTRICA. È (DAVVERO) L’ORA DELLA SVOLTA?

By José Elías Navarro – President of Audax Renovables SA

Auto elettrica sempre più una realtà. Se un decennio fa (ma forse anche solo un lustro) questa affermazione suonava come un comune auspicio per una mobilità low carbon – specialmente nei centri urbani – oggi la situazione è piuttosto cambiata. Le innovazioni tecnologiche che hanno permesso importanti miglioramenti nelle prestazioni e l’urgenza nel trovare soluzioni meno inquinanti hanno condotto le case automobilistiche a “credere” nell’elettrico, investendo risorse per la produzione e la commercializzazione di nuovi modelli. In un certo senso, politiche sovranazionali e locali sempre più restrittive e diffuse in materia di riduzione delle emissioni inquinanti – dalla messa al bando dei motori diesel a ordinanze quali blocchi del traffico o targhe alterne – hanno generato nei consumatori-automobilisti il bisogno di alternative valide (e immediate).

I numeri illustrano bene questa evoluzione. Nel 2020, saranno commercializzati 176 nuovi modelli di auto elettrica, nel 2021 ben 214. E si arriverà ai 333 modelli nel 2025, se i piani delle case automobilistiche non subiranno variazioni. La produzione di veicoli elettrici in Europa dovrebbe moltiplicarsi di sei volte tra il 2019 e il 2025, raggiungendo oltre 4 milioni di auto e furgoni, o più di un quinto del volume di produzione di auto dell’UE.

This was stated by the independent pan-European association European Federation for Transport and Environment, in the report published at the end of July this year [ +info ]. This data considers the three main types of electric vehicles, namely the so-called BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle), PHEV (Plug–into Hybrid Electric Vehicle) and FCEV (Fuel-cell Electric Vehicle). But which type do you focus on more decisively?

Il maggior numero di modelli sarà PHEV, ovvero auto a propulsione ibrida (elettrico e combustione interna) che possono essere caricate dalla rete utilizzando un sistema a cavo o wireless. Nel 2021 gli automobilisti potranno decidere tra 118 diversi modelli di PHEV; nel 2018 la scelta era limitata a 60. La conseguenza? Entro 6 anni, il 22% dei veicoli prodotti potrebbe essere provvisto di un connettore di ricarica: il che consentirebbe ai produttori di raggiungere facilmente l’obiettivo di emissioni di CO2 fissata dall’Unione europea a 95 g / km (proprio entro il 2025).

If we consider "pure electric" cars, the numbers drop, but without collapse: in three years, in 2022, there will be more than one hundred BEV models while in 2025 they will reach 172. As for the new products released on the market every twelve months the progression will be: 19 new BEVs this year, 33 in 2020, 22 in 2021, 30 in 2022 and 33 in 2023.

Graph 1. Number of electric car models available on the European market (2012-2025)

(source: European Federation for Transport and Environment)

However, the FCEV market remains very marginal, i.e. those cars whose traditional engine is replaced with a fuel cell powered by hydrogen or other fuels.

Let's look at Italy. Although there are just over 13 thousand electric cars in circulation, the market has begun to show encouraging signs with registrations doubling - or almost - from year to year. According to the eMobility Report of the Energy&Strategy Group of the Polytechnic University of Milan, in 2017, almost 5 thousand electric cars were sold in Italy, +100% compared to the previous year. Of these, around 2 thousand belong to the "full electric" type, while the remainder to the "plug in" type. The data relating to 2018 also confirm the more than positive trend, with double sales [ +info ].

Anche in Spagna si registrano percentuali di crescita interessanti, ma – ad oggi – sembra molto lontano l’obiettivo di 5milioni di veicoli elettrici circolanti previsti del Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima.

Without a doubt, continuous technical progress and technological innovations make electric an increasingly credible competitor to the internal combustion engine. However, some important questions still need to find effective and efficient answers and solutions [ +info ].

1. Let's start with the batteries. Despite being much better performing than in the past - especially lithium-ion and sodium-nickel chloride - they still have to improve in weight, size and performance/cost ratio.
2. The issue of charging speed is linked to batteries. Today times are affected by the way in which one "refuels". According to calculations by the European Environment Agency, it takes just 10 minutes to travel 100 km from a fast charging point (120 kW, direct current). But if the operation is carried out in your own box, using a mains socket it takes up to 8 hours (3.3 kW, alternating current, single phase).
3. A third element is the so-called range anxiety, or "range anxiety" that is generated in the driver, worried about not having enough battery to reach his destination. A fear that only investments in charging infrastructure can dispel. To date, there are over 5 thousand charging points for electric vehicles in Italy [ +info ]. A number similar to that recorded in Spain.
4. Lastly is the price. Even today, electric cars cost more than traditional internal combustion cars.

Graph 2. Charging times depending on mode

(Source: from the European Environment Agency)

The turning point may not be around the corner, but it is closer than it might have appeared just a few years ago. After all, at the beginning of the motor age, electric vehicles competed on equal terms with the four-stroke engine of the German Nikolaus August Otto. At least until petrol (and the entire extraction, refining and distribution system) took over, relegating electric to a corner. Today, more than 150 years later, has the time come to reverse roles?