ELECTRIC CAR. IS IT (REALLY) BREAKTHROUGH TIME?

By José Elías Navarro – President of Audax Renovables SA

Electric cars increasingly a reality. If a decade ago (but perhaps even just five years ago) this statement sounded like a common hope for low carbon mobility - especially in urban centers - today the situation has changed quite a bit. The technological innovations that have allowed important improvements in performance and the urgency in finding less polluting solutions have led car manufacturers to "believe" in electric, investing resources in the production and marketing of new models. In a certain sense, increasingly restrictive and widespread supranational and local policies regarding the reduction of polluting emissions - from the ban on diesel engines to ordinances such as traffic blocks or alternating license plates - have generated in consumers-motorists the need for valid alternatives (and immediate).

The numbers illustrate this evolution well. In 2020, 176 new electric car models will be marketed, in 2021 as many as 214. And this will reach 333 models in 2025, if the car manufacturers' plans remain unchanged. Electric vehicle production in Europe is expected to multiply six-fold between 2019 and 2025, reaching more than 4 million cars and vans, or more than a fifth of the EU's car production volume.

This was stated by the independent pan-European association European Federation for Transport and Environment, in the report published at the end of July this year [ +info ]. This data considers the three main types of electric vehicles, namely the so-called BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle), PHEV (Plug-into Hybrid Electric Vehicle) and FCEV (Fuel-cell Electric Vehicle). But which type do you focus on more decisively?

The largest number of models will be PHEVs, i.e. hybrid propulsion cars (electric and internal combustion) that can be charged from the network using a cable or wireless system. In 2021, motorists will be able to decide between 118 different PHEV models; in 2018 the choice was limited to 60. The consequence? Within 6 years, the 22% of produced vehicles could be equipped with a charging connector: which would allow manufacturers to easily reach the CO2 emissions target set by the European Union at 95 g/km (right by 2025).

If we consider "pure electric" cars, the numbers drop, but without collapse: in three years, in 2022, there will be more than one hundred BEV models while in 2025 they will reach 172. As for the new products released on the market every twelve months the progression will be: 19 new BEVs this year, 33 in 2020, 22 in 2021, 30 in 2022 and 33 in 2023.

Graph 1. Number of electric car models available on the European market (2012-2025)

(source: European Federation for Transport and Environment)

However, the FCEV market remains very marginal, i.e. those cars whose traditional engine is replaced with a fuel cell powered by hydrogen or other fuels.

Let's look at Italy. Although there are just over 13 thousand electric cars in circulation, the market has begun to show encouraging signs with registrations doubling - or almost - from year to year. According to the eMobility Report of the Energy&Strategy Group of the Polytechnic University of Milan, in 2017, almost 5 thousand electric cars were sold in Italy, +100% compared to the previous year. Of these, around 2 thousand belong to the "full electric" type, while the remainder to the "plug in" type. The data relating to 2018 also confirm the more than positive trend, with double sales [ +info ].

Interesting growth percentages are also being recorded in Spain, but - to date - the objective of 5 million electric vehicles in circulation set out in the National Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate seems very far away.

Without a doubt, continuous technical progress and technological innovations make electric an increasingly credible competitor to the internal combustion engine. However, some important questions still need to find effective and efficient answers and solutions [ +info ].

1. Let's start with the batteries. Despite being much better performing than in the past - especially lithium-ion and sodium-nickel chloride - they still have to improve in weight, size and performance/cost ratio.
2. The issue of charging speed is linked to batteries. Today times are affected by the way in which one "refuels". According to calculations by the European Environment Agency, it takes just 10 minutes to travel 100 km from a fast charging point (120 kW, direct current). But if the operation is carried out in your own box, using a mains socket it takes up to 8 hours (3.3 kW, alternating current, single phase).
3. A third element is the so-called range anxiety, or "range anxiety" that is generated in the driver, worried about not having enough battery to reach his destination. A fear that only investments in charging infrastructure can dispel. To date, there are over 5 thousand charging points for electric vehicles in Italy [ +info ]. A number similar to that recorded in Spain.
4. Lastly is the price. Even today, electric cars cost more than traditional internal combustion cars.

Graph 2. Charging times depending on mode

(Source: from the European Environment Agency)

The turning point may not be around the corner, but it is closer than it might have appeared just a few years ago. After all, at the beginning of the motor age, electric vehicles competed on equal terms with the four-stroke engine of the German Nikolaus August Otto. At least until petrol (and the entire extraction, refining and distribution system) took over, relegating electric to a corner. Today, more than 150 years later, has the time come to reverse roles?